Despite geopolitical tensions and ongoing economic uncertainty, global liftings for the H1 2026 reached 98.4 million TEUs, representing a 5.2% increase year-on-year (YoY). All regions recorded year-to-date (YTD) export growth compared with H1 2025, with the exception of Europe and, unsurprisingly, the Indian Sub-Continent & Middle East. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) delivered the strongest import performance, recording 15% YTD growth during the first half of the year. This expansion was supported by increased cargo flows from the Far East, Europe, and North America. The positive trend accelerated further in July, which proved to be a record-breaking month for global container trade with 17.3 million TEUs lifted worldwide. SSA once again played an important role in sustaining this momentum, with imports remaining particularly dynamic and recording 14% YTD growth.

Despite the rising ocean freight rates, which are largely a consequence of higher oil prices, trade flows with Africa are expected to remain on a positive trajectory for both imports and exports. Import demand will continue to be supported by African countries' growing need for consumer goods, while exports should benefit from the expansion of intra-African trade and commodity movements. We do, however, anticipate a temporary slowdown in October due to China's Golden Week holiday period. Nevertheless, the fourth quarter has traditionally been a strong period for shipping volumes.

AGL’s procurement department

This optimism is also reflected in carrier deployment strategies. Shipping lines are increasingly concentrating capacity on the Asia-West Africa trade lane, which gained approximately 347,500 TEUs of capacity between May 2025 and May 2026, representing a substantial 34% YoY increase. The route is experiencing strong growth across a broad range of cargo, including machinery, vehicles, electronics, construction materials, consumer products and industrial inputs. Such developments underscore growing confidence in West African consumption markets while highlighting the continent's increasing strategic importance within global liner shipping networks.

 

Containerized trade continues to grow, but maritime risk in the Middle East has expanded beyond a single chokepoint. In September 2026, Houthi forces advanced along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and strengthened their position around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, increasing uncertainty on one of the world’s most strategic shipping corridors. Although several carriers, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, CMA CGM and COSCO, have progressively resumed selected services through the Suez Canal since the summer of 2026, a full return to pre-crisis routing patterns has yet to materialize. As a result, many Asia-Europe services continue to be routed via the Cape of Good Hope, extending transit times while simultaneously enhancing the strategic relevance of Southern African ports and maritime infrastructure.

 

The air cargo market presents a more nuanced picture. In May 2026, African airlines recorded the strongest growth worldwide, with cargo demand increasing by 13.3% YoY, while capacity rose by only 1.3% YoY, resulting in one of the largest improvements in load factors across all regions. During the same period, carriers in the Middle East remained under significant pressure, with cargo demand contracting by 8.9% YoY, reflecting the operational disruptions affecting major Gulf hubs and the contraction of several Middle East-linked trade corridors. 

 

By June, however, the market environment began to shift. As Gulf carriers progressively restored connectivity through their hub networks, Middle Eastern air cargo returned to growth, with demand rising 5.6% YoY. At the same time, African cargo growth moderated to 4.7% YoY, signaling the gradual reduction of the diversion effect that had supported volumes during the spring. This trend continued into July, African demand growth slowed further to 1.1% YoY.

The upcoming fruit and vegetable export season is expected to support cargo volumes toward year-end. However, fuel prices remain extremely high, encouraging many customers to shift to maritime transport wherever possible. In addition, exports of solar panels assembled in East Africa and destined for the United States should provide additional support to airfreight volumes.

AGL’s airfreight director

Indeed, East Africa continued to stand out as Africa's main air export gateway. According to African Airlines Association (AFRAA), it was the only African sub-region where export volumes exceeded imports, supported by strong outbound flows of perishables and horticultural products. This structural export base contrasts with the rest of the continent, where inbound cargo continues to dominate. The strength of these flows is reflected in Ethiopian Airlines Cargo's performance, with nearly 897,000 tons handled during FY2025/26 and a 16% increase YoY.

 

Inland, one of the most notable developments in 2026 has been the growing alignment between industrial park development and the objectives of the AfCFTA. As countries seek to strengthen regional value chains and increase intra-African trade, logistics and industrial hubs are increasingly being positioned along key trade corridors rather than solely around seaports. The proposed Mombasa Industrial Park reflects this shift toward integrated ecosystems combining manufacturing, warehousing and regional distribution capabilities.

 

Furthermore, rail contributes to the development of these industrial zones by connecting them directly to ports and inland terminals, thereby ensuring reliable transportation schedules and alleviating congestion on road networks. The development of the Ferkessédougou dry port in Côte d’Ivoire illustrates this approach to integrating rail and industry. Connected to the Port of Abidjan via the rail network, this multimodal logistics hub aims to decentralize port traffic, improve traffic flow along transport corridors, and support the establishment of industrial activities in the north of the country.  

AGL is developing similar service projects in Durban, elsewhere in Southern Africa, and in Abidjan, leveraging the expertise gained through its rail concessions.

AGL’s rail concessions division

Despite this encouraging progress, important structural challenges remain. Across much of the continent, warehousing infrastructure continues to be dominated by informal facilities and aging legacy assets, resulting in persistent operational inefficiencies. Most notably, the shortage of Grade A warehousing facilities remains a significant constraint in many African markets, limiting the continent's ability to fully capitalize on the trade opportunities expected to arise from the implementation of the AfCFTA and the continued expansion of regional supply chains.